Cov nqi xauj tsev siab yog vim li cas vim li cas kev nce nqi tsis poob qis?Cov lus ceeb toom tshiab ntawm cov paj laum nce qib!
10/21/2022
Vim li cas ho tsis muaj nyiaj txiag poob qis?
Hnub Thursday dhau los, Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv rau lub Cuaj Hli CPI.
CPI tau nce 8.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv lub Cuaj Hli, piv rau 8.3% yav dhau los, thiab 8.1% xav tau los ntawm kev ua lag luam;core inflation CPI tau nce 6.6% xyoo-rau-xyoo, piv rau 6.3% yav dhau los.
Tus nqi nce nqi CPI tau poob txij li nws qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Rau Hli xyoo no, feem ntau yog vim cov nqi hluav taws xob qis, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov roj av, tab sis kuj tseem ua rau qeeb qeeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv.
Kuj ceeb tias, txawm li cas los xij, cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb CPI tau mus txog qhov tshiab 40-xyoo siab, nce rau ob lub hlis sib law liag.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws uas ua rau muaj kev nce nqi tseem ceeb CPI yog kev nce nqi vaj tsev, uas tau mus txog 6.6% xyoo-rau-xyoo, qib siab tshaj plaws txij li cov ntaub ntawv pib, thiab nqi xauj tsev, uas tseem tau mus txog cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm 7.2%.
Cov nqi xauj tsev li cas thiaj li nce nyiaj nce ntxiv?
Tom qab xyoo 2020 muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb, kev lag luam vaj tsev tau pib "lub voj voog vwm" vim tias cov paj laum qis heev, xav tau kev sib txuas lus, thiab nthwv dej ntawm kev yuav tsev los ntawm Millennials.- Thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, cov nqi vaj tsev tau nce ntau dua 20%.
Txawm hais tias cov nqi vaj tsev tsis suav nrog hauv kev suav ntawm CPI, qhov nce ntawm cov nqi vaj tsev tau ua rau cov nqi xauj tsev, thiab qhov hnyav ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev hauv CPI yog ntau dua 30%, yog li cov nqi xauj tsev txuas ntxiv thiab tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb " trigger" rau qhov kev nce nqi siab tam sim no.
Tsis tas li ntawd, tus nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav luag "ob npaug" ib xyoos ib zaug raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai nruj tus nqi nce siab, thiab cov nqi vaj tse uas kub hnyiab tau qhia thawj cov cim ntawm kev hloov pauv.
Tam sim no, ntau tus neeg yuav khoom tau xaiv los tos-thiab-saib mus kom ze vim qhov nce nqi qiv;Cov nqi tsev tau poob rau ntau qhov chaw, thiab ntau tus neeg muag khoom muaj peev xwm tsis maj nrawm muag lawv lub tsev, uas ua rau muaj kev lag luam lag luam poob qis.
Thaum tsawg tus neeg yuav tsev, ntau tus neeg xauj lawv, ntxiv tsav tsheb nce nqi.
Tus nqi xauj tsev yuav nce siab!
Raws li Lub Sijhawm Saib Xyuas Rent Index luam tawm los ntawm Zillow, kev xauj tsev loj hlob tau poob qis rau ob peb lub hlis ua ke.
Keeb kwm, txawm li cas los xij, qhov ntsuas qhov nqi xauj tsev no nyiam ua ntej cov tsev xauj tsev ntawm CPI los ntawm rau lub hlis.
Qhov no yog vim Zillow tsuas yog txiav txim siab tus nqi ntawm daim ntawv xauj tsev tshiab uas tau kos npe rau lub hli tam sim no thaum saib cov nqi xauj tsev, feem ntau cov neeg xauj tsev kos npe rau ib-lossis-ob-xyoo kev xauj tsev ntawm tus nqi them txhua hli, yog li CPI cov txheeb cais kuj suav nrog cov nqi xauj tsev. twb tau kos npe rau yav dhau los.
Muaj kev lag luam ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev tam sim no thiab cov neeg xauj tsev feem ntau them, uas yog vim li cas Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tseem ceeb tshaj tawm cov nqi vaj tsev nce ntxiv.
Raws li kev paub dhau los, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov tsev xauj tsev hauv CPI yuav pib qeeb hauv lub quarter thib 4 ntawm lub xyoo no.
Nrog rau cov nqi xauj tsev uas hnyav tshaj li 30% hauv CPI, qeeb nqi xauj tsev yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev nce nqi tseem ceeb.
Kev ceeb toom tshiab ntawm kev nce paj paj
Raws li CPI qhia tau hais tias kev nce nqi tseem kub heev, qhov no tseem txhawb qhov kev cia siab ntawm lwm 75 bps tus nqi nce mus rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis (ze li 100%);muaj txawm tias kev kwv yees ntawm lwm qhov 75 bps tus nqi nce mus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis (uas xav tias yuav siab li 69%).
Duab qhov chaw: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 12th, Fed tau tshaj tawm cov lus ceeb toom ntawm lub Cuaj Hlis lub rooj sib tham, uas cuam tshuam txog ib qho tseem ceeb hauv kev tshwj xeeb - Fed nyiam nce tus nqi rau qib kev txwv rau kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm luv luv (qhov kev txwv no yuav tsum siab dua 4%).uas piav qhia meej yog vim li cas Fed yuav tsum tau nce tus nqi thiaj li aggressively nyob rau hauv succession.
Hauv lwm lo lus, Fed yuav nce tus nqi nce ntxiv los ntawm tsawg kawg yog lwm 125 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus (75bp + 50bp) ua ntej lub xyoo xaus thiab tom qab ntawd tswj cov qib no rau qee lub sijhawm xyoo tom ntej.
Duab credit.https://www.freddiemac.com/pms
Duab qhov chaw: CNBC
Mus rau hnub Thursday, Freddie Mac qhov kev tshaj tawm tshiab peb caug xyoo tas li tau nce mus rau 6.92%, nws qib siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2002, thiab kaum-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau tawg los ntawm qhov tseem ceeb 4% qib.
Yun, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm National Association of Realtors (NAR), tau hais tias raws li kev tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, qhov kev tawm tsam tom ntej yuav yog 8.5% ib zaug cov paj laum qiv hauv tsev tawg los ntawm 7% qhov pib.
Nrog rau ib puag ncig tshiab ntawm kev nce qib ntawm lub qab ntug, nws yog qhov zoo los coj kom zoo dua ntawm lub qhov rais ntawm lub sijhawm thiab hu rau koj tus tub ceev xwm qiv nyiaj kom sai li sai tau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau qis qis.
Nqe Lus Nug: Kab lus no tau hloov kho los ntawm AAA LENDINGS;Qee cov duab tau raug coj los ntawm Is Taws Nem, txoj hauj lwm ntawm lub xaib tsis sawv cev thiab tsis tuaj yeem luam tawm yam tsis tau tso cai.Muaj kev pheej hmoo hauv kev ua lag luam thiab kev nqis peev yuav tsum tau ceev faj.Kab lus no tsis yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev ntawm tus kheej, thiab tsis suav nrog cov hom phiaj kev nqis peev tshwj xeeb, nyiaj txiag teeb meem lossis kev xav tau ntawm cov neeg siv khoom.Cov neeg siv yuav tsum xav txog seb cov kev xav, kev xav lossis cov lus xaus hauv no puas tsim nyog rau lawv qhov xwm txheej.Ua lag luam raws li koj tus kheej txaus ntshai.
Post lub sij hawm: Oct-22-2022